How Trump Achieved a Gaza Strip Breakthrough That Escaped Biden
At first, Israel's air strike on the Hamas militant negotiating team in Doha seemed like another intensification that pushed the prospect of a ceasefire further away.
The attack on September 9 breached the sovereignty of an US partner and risked widening the hostilities into a broader regional conflict.
Negotiations seemed to be in ruins.
Instead, it proved to be a pivotal event that culminated in a agreement, announced by President Donald Trump, to free all captives still held.
That represents a goal that he, and President Joe Biden previously, had sought for nearly two years.
It is just the initial phase towards a more durable peace, and the details of Hamas disarmament, Gaza governance and full Israeli withdrawal are still to be negotiated.
But if this agreement stands, it could be Donald Trump's signature achievement of his second term - one that eluded Biden and his diplomatic team.
Trump's distinct approach and key alliances with Israel and the Middle Eastern nations appear to have played a role in this success.
However, as with many foreign policy wins, there were also factors at play beyond the control of either man.
A Close Relationship That Biden Never Had
In public, Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are consistently friendly.
Trump likes to say that the nation has no better friend, and the Israeli leader has called him as the country's "most supportive friend in the White House". And these positive statements have been backed up by deeds.
During his first presidential term, Trump moved the US embassy in the country from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and discarded a long-held US position that Israeli settlements in the occupied territories are illegal, the position under global norms.
After the Israeli military began its bombing campaign against the Islamic Republic in June, Trump directed US bombers to target the Iran's atomic sites with its most powerful conventional bombs.
Those visible shows of support may have allowed the president the room to exert more pressure on the Israeli government in private. According to reports, the president's negotiator, Steve Witkoff, pressured the prime minister in the latter part of the year into agreeing to a temporary ceasefire in exchange for the release of a number of captives.
After Israel launched strikes against Syria's military in July, including bombing a Christian church, Trump pressured Netanyahu to alter tactics.
The leader exhibited a level of will and pressure on an Israeli prime minister that is rarely seen, says an analyst of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "There is no example of an US leader literally telling an Israeli prime minister that you're going to have to comply or else."
Joe Biden's relationship with Netanyahu's government was always more tenuous.
His administration's "bear hug approach" argued that the United States had to embrace the nation openly in order to enable it to moderate the country's war conduct in private.
Underneath this was the president's nearly half-century of support for Israel, as well as deep disagreements within his Democratic coalition over the conflict in Gaza. Every step Biden took risked fracturing his own domestic support, whereas Trump's solid Republican base provided him more room to act.
In the end, internal considerations or individual ties may have had less importance than the simple fact that, throughout Biden's presidency, Israel was unwilling to make peace.
Eight months into Trump's second term, with the Islamic Republic weakened, Hezbollah to its northern border significantly reduced and Gaza in ruins, every one of its key military goals had been accomplished.
Business History Assisted Gain Support from Arab States
The Israeli missile attack in Doha, which killed a local national but no Hamas officials, prompted the president to issue an ultimatum to Netanyahu. Hostilities had to end.
The US leader had given Israel a relatively free hand in the territory. The president provided US armed support to Israel's campaign in Iran. But an strike on Qatari territory was a separate issue completely, moving him towards the stance of Arab nations on how best to end the war.
A number of Trump officials have informed media outlets that this was a decisive moment which galvanised the leader to exert maximum pressure to get a peace deal done.
The leader's close ties with the Arab monarchies are widely known. Trump has commercial interests with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The president began both his presidential terms with official trips to Saudi Arabia. This year, he also stopped in Doha and the UAE capital.
The president's normalization agreements, which established ties between Israel and a number of Arab nations, including the UAE, was the most significant diplomatic achievement of his first term.
His visits devoted in the cities of the Gulf region earlier this year helped change his thinking, says an expert of the a policy institute. Trump did not visit the country on this Middle East trip but went to the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar where he heard consistent appeals to put a stop to the conflict.
Within weeks after that Israeli strike on the city, the president was present nearby as the prime minister personally phoned the Qatari leadership to express regret. Subsequently, the prime minister signed off on Trump's comprehensive proposal for the territory - one that additionally had the support of key Muslim nations in the area.
Assuming Trump's relationship with Netanyahu gave him the room to pressure the government to reach an agreement, his past with Muslim leaders may have secured their backing, and helped them persuade the group to agree to the deal.
"A key factor that clearly happened was that the US leader gained influence with the Israelis, and indirectly with Hamas," says an analyst of the a research center.
"That made a difference. His ability to do this on his timing, and not succumb to the desires of the combatants has been a problem that many earlier administrations have struggled with, and he seems to handle relatively successfully."
The reality that Trump is far better liked in the nation than the prime minister himself was an advantage that he used to his advantage, the expert continues.
Now the Israeli government has agreed to freeing more than 1,000 detainees imprisoned in Israeli prisons and has agreed to a limited pullback from Gaza.
The group will free all the remaining hostages, both alive and deceased, taken in the initial October 7 assault, which caused the loss of over 1,200 Israeli citizens.
A conclusion to the war, which has resulted in the devastation of the territory and the deaths of over 67,000 {Palestinians|Pal